Where will demographics take the Asia-Pacific food system?
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The population of the Asia-Pacific region is projected to rise by more than 400 million people in the next 2 decades, a 16% increase over 2000.
This increase is equivalent to the combined populations of Japan and the United States today. Although economic growth and prices are closely monitored drivers of food demand, demographic changes--urbanization, growth in populations, and changes in the age structure of populations--will likely have more profound long-term implications for the region's food system.
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Demographic change was first connected to food demand and supply 200 years ago when Thomas Malthus asserted that "the power of population is infinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man." He later amended his pessimistic view about the earth's capacity to produce food in acknowledging the promise of technological change in increasing food supply. For the intermediate term, population growth and other demographic changes are more likely to define food markets than supply constraints.
Marketing food products in the Asia-Pacific region will increasingly focus on densely populated urban centers, such as the Hong Kong-Shenzen-Pearl River Delta area, Shanghai, Jakarta, Bangkok, Manila, Santiago-Valparaiso, and Lima-Callao. Many of these urban areas are coastal and have modern port facilities, making them easily accessible to foreign suppliers. In some instances, foreign suppliers are more competitive in these coastal urban markets than are inland producers who face inadequate infrastructure.
400 Million More People To Feed
Although the population in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to grow from 2.6 billion in 2000 to 3.0 billion in 2020, this rate of growth is slower than for the rest of the world. Asia-Pacific's share of the world population will decline from 43% in 2000 to 40% in 2020, as countries in Africa and the Middle East grow faster. Since the 1960s, global population growth, including the Asia-Pacific region, has slowed, marking a shift from the geometric growth rates of previous decades. Currently, the number of people added to the world and the Asia-Pacific region is declining each year. The world population is projected to level off at about 9-10 billion after 2050, with the Asia-Pacific region leveling off at about 3 billion before declining in the 2040s.
Demographic indicators for the Asia-Pacific region
Total population Urban population
Economy * 2000 2020 Change 2000 2020
Million Million
Australia 19.2 22.4 3.2 17.4 21.4
Brunei 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.4
Canada 30.8 35.4 4.6 24.2 29.4
Chile 15.2 18.0 2.9 13.0 16.2
China 1,262.5 1,424.1 161.6 456.4 764.2
Colombia 39.7 52.2 12.5 29.8 43.2
Ecuador 12.9 18.0 5.1 8.1 12.8
Hong Kong, China 7.1 8.7 1.5 7.1 8.7
Indonesia 224.1 287.9 63.8 91.9 168.2
Japan 126.9 124.1 -2.8 99.9 102.5
Korea 47.3 51.5 4.3 38.7 46.0
Malaysia 23.3 34.4 11.1 13.4 23.6
Mexico 99.9 124.7 24.7 74.3 98.8
New Zealand 3.8 4.5 0.7 3.3 4.0
Peru 27.0 35.6 8.6 19.7 28.2
Philippines 79.7 111.3 31.6 46.7 79.5
Russia 146.0 139.0 -7.0 106.4 104.3
Singapore 4.2 7.5 3.4 4.2 7.5
Taiwan 22.3 24.3 2.0 18.3 20.8
Thailand 62.4 71.9 9.5 12.4 19.2
United States 282.3 336.0 53.7 218.0 276.3
Vietnam 78.5 99.9 21.4 18.9 34.7
Asia-Pacific region 2,615.4 3,031.8 416.4 1,322.3 1,909.8
World 6,078.7 7,516.5 1,437.8 2,872.2 4,201.7
Urban
population
Economy * Change
Million
Australia 4.0
Brunei 0.1
Canada 5.1
Chile 3.2
China 307.7
Colombia 13.4
Ecuador 4.7
Hong Kong, China 1.5
Indonesia 76.3
Japan 2.6
Korea 7.3
Malaysia 10.2
Mexico 24.4
New Zealand 0.7
Peru 8.6
Philippines 32.8
Russia -2.2
Singapore 3.4
Taiwan 2.5
Thailand 6.9
United States 58.3
Vietnam 15.8
Asia-Pacific region 587.5
World 1,329.5
* Members of the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council.
Source: UN data (medium fertility scenario) from U.S. Census database.
William Coyle (wcoyle@ers.usda.gov)
Brad Gilmour (gilmourb@agr.gc.ca
Walter J. Armbruster (walt@farmfoundation.org
COPYRIGHT 2004 Frozen Food Digest, Inc.
No portion of this article can be reproduced without the express written permission from the copyright holder.
No portion of this article can be reproduced without the express written permission from the copyright holder.
Copyright 2004 Gale, Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.
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| Comment: | Where will demographics take the Asia-Pacific food system? |
|---|---|
| Author: | Keneally, Thomas |
| Publication: | Frozen Food Digest |
| Geographic Code: | 0PACR |
| Date: | Jul 1, 2004 |
| Words: | 781 |
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